Introduction: An Ambitious Blueprint Rises
In November 2024, just days after Donald Trump secured his return to the White House, a 41-page document quietly circulated among macroeconomic analysts and financial strategists. Titled “A User Guide to Restructuring the Global Trade System,” the report was authored by Stephen Miran, then a macro strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and now chief economic advisor in Trump’s economic team.
Though not an official government publication, the “Miran Report” is widely interpreted as a conceptual playbook for Trump’s emerging economic doctrine. The document outlines a bold reconfiguration of global economic rules — one that seeks to preserve America’s strategic dominance while reviving its domestic manufacturing base.
But as this vision edges closer to policy reality, experts are asking: Can it actually work? And what happens if it fails?
I. Core Premise of the MIRAN Framework
At its heart, the Miran Report is built on a paradox: the U.S. must simultaneously maintain the dollar’s global dominance and engineer a structural dollar depreciation to restore export competitiveness and reduce trade deficits.
To achieve this, the report proposes:
- Converting U.S. debt held by foreign central banks into zero-interest 100-year bonds or perpetual bonds, effectively securing permanent low-cost funding.
- Using tariffs and military guarantees as leverage, pressuring allies to accept these new terms in exchange for continued access to U.S. markets and security umbrellas.
- Re-onshoring supply chains to reduce dependency on adversarial nations, especially China.
It is a vision rooted in economic nationalism and strategic coercion — one that fundamentally redefines post-WWII American economic leadership.
II. Potential Upside: Strategic Leverage and Industrial Revival
If executed precisely, this strategy could yield several benefits:
- Manufacturing Resurgence: A weaker dollar would boost exports and incentivize domestic production.
- Geopolitical Realignment: Allies more tightly bound to U.S. supply chains and defense commitments.
- Long-Term Fiscal Relief: Lower interest obligations on U.S. debt via perpetual bonds could create breathing room for a deficit-ridden federal budget.
- Reduced Dependency on China: Strategic decoupling could enhance national security and technological autonomy.
In theory, it’s a multiplier effect of economic and political leverage — one that aims to reassert America’s global primacy through economic redesign.
III. Structural Flaws and Unrealistic Assumptions
Yet the same strategy is fraught with internal contradictions and overreliance on ideal conditions:
- Contradiction between Dollar Weakening and Dollar Dominance
You cannot weaken the dollar’s value and simultaneously expect it to remain the world’s most trusted reserve currency.
Any sharp decline in dollar confidence could trigger capital flight and destabilize U.S. bond markets. - Overestimation of U.S. Bargaining Power
Demanding perpetual bonds from allies while threatening tariffs or security withdrawal assumes a level of unilateral influence that may no longer exist in a multipolar world. - Underestimation of Retaliation Risks
The EU and China have already signaled retaliatory tariff plans. This could spark a full-blown trade war, further amplifying global inflation and recessionary pressure. - Domestic Political Fragility
U.S. internal division, legal battles involving Trump, and upcoming Congressional resistance make sustained execution of such a bold plan politically volatile.
IV. Wildcard Variables: The Uncontrollables
Even more critically, the MIRAN strategy assumes a relatively stable global environment — a dangerous assumption.
- What if a mega-quake, like the predicted Nankai Trough earthquake, cripples Japan’s economy?
Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. A sudden liquidity crunch there could cascade into U.S. financial markets. - What if another pandemic or public health crisis hits?
The required fiscal response would explode deficits and push the Fed into emergency easing, undermining dollar control. - What if civil unrest or domestic instability intensifies?
Any large-scale disruption — political violence, energy shocks, cyberattacks — could derail the careful calibration of MIRAN’s debt-and-leverage machinery.
V. Global Fallout: A Miscalculated Strategy Could Backfire
If the MIRAN framework collapses under the weight of its own ambition or is disrupted by exogenous shocks, the ripple effects could be catastrophic:
- U.S. Credit Downgrade: Loss of global investor confidence in U.S. debt instruments.
- Dollar Devaluation Spiral: Weakening currency without capital controls = asset flight.
- Global Recession: Retaliatory tariffs + liquidity crisis = global demand shock.
- Accelerated De-dollarization: Push by BRICS+ nations to adopt alternative reserve systems.
In short, a failed MIRAN strategy could not only dismantle the current financial order — it could hasten the emergence of a fragmented, unstable multi-currency system.
Conclusion: Bold Vision, Fragile Ground
The Miran Report lays out an ambitious plan — one that seeks to rebuild American strength through recalibrated global power dynamics. But its success depends on variables far beyond its authors’ control. In attempting to bend the world to its terms, the Trump administration may instead expose the limits of American economic leverage in a new geopolitical era.
A wise strategy must hedge for disruption, not just plan for dominance.
If not, the price of failure will be global.
Reference: Miran's "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System" (PDF fire)